As fantasy drafts come to an end, a consistent mid round running back stands out as highway robbery. Ty Montgomery, the 20th running back off the board. A wide receiver who converted to running back halfway through the season, Montgomery still managed to be the 37th ranked running back. A fringe RB3 season for a player who was not at his primary position. Montgomery did this in only 11 games as well, as he did not play in weeks 1-5, and missed week 8 against Atlanta.
The late third/early fourth round pick for a receiver playing running back is risky, but will pay off in 2017. In 2016 there were six games Montgomery was the leading rusher for the Packers, and 10 he was not. The Packers were 5-1 and averaged 37.8 points per game in those six with him as the leading rusher. Green Bay went 6-4 and averaged 31.3 points per game in those he was not.
Keep an eye out for my “Must-Own RBs” article dropping this evening … here’s a teaser: pic.twitter.com/BPlQNcTz8Q
— Matt Franciscovich (@MattFranchise) July 18, 2017
Take the name off of the situation and stat line, and just boil it down to “This player is a dual threat out of the backfield, plays in an elite offense, and was a RB3 in only 11 games played”, I believe the hype for Montgomery grows. However there is a stigma that because he is a former wide out and was an aberration in his success, it is unsustainable. That is not the case.
The Packers management and coaching staff knows now that Montgomery is a key to success. Instead of using a high pick or free agency dollars on a running back, they used a fourth and fifth round pick on two “project” type players in Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Montgomery had an entire training camp and off-season preparing as a running back to aid him in becoming a better runner.
Playing with Aaron Rodgers doesn’t hurt his offensive projections either.
Ty Montgomery is someone who carries a lot of risk, but at the same time a high floor. He has excellent hands as a former receiver, so in any type of PPR league he provides a consistent baseline. The lowest Montgomery could be as a full-time starter is a running back two. Montgomery’s mixture of talent, opportunity, and his quarterback warrant a top ten ceiling. Fantasy players that drafted him past the third round should be locked up for highway robbery.
So if you have a share in Montgomery, hold him as tight as you can. If you have none, buy him as often and as quickly as you can before someone else capitalizes on the sweet, sweet value of the Packers’ running back.