Oh… you’re still here? I thought after picking Matt Stafford, Mike Gillislee, Terrelle Pryor, Austin Hooper, and the Eagles defense last week you would have left. Thanks, but proceed at your own risk.
Hopefully this week goes better than last, as I venture into the Daily Fantasy world. The lineup I will be doing is only for Sunday day and afternoon games (1:00 and 4:00 games).
Without further a do, here’s the lineup that will win you money this weekend in DraftKings.
Generally QB is a train wreck, and a lot of value can be found in lower-tier quarterbacks. Because of this, I like to go with cheaper QBs in good match ups. This week is no different.
Trevor Siemian ($5,200):
Yes, Siemian is my pick for quarterback, despite the fact he is struggled last week in Buffalo. Siemian dominated at home in the first two games, and the Raiders just got torched by Kirk Cousins for 365 yards and three touchdowns.
Siemian scored 22 fantasy points in each of his first two games, throwing for four touchdowns against the Cowboys. The fact he is cheaper than Jimmy Garoppolo and Derek Anderson is puzzling to say the least.
$5,200 for a talented home quarterback against a bad defense is a steal. Pick Siemian as your quarterback and laugh as you splurge on running back and wide receiver studs.
Running Back (2)
Draft Kings is full point per reception, so pass catching running backs will hold much more value than traditional bell-cows.
Devonta Freeman ($7,300):
Freeman, despite only catching the ball seven times in the first three games, is averaging 20.6 points per game in DraftKings scoring format. He has an incredibly high floor, and a high ceiling to boot. It is for this reason he is so expensive. Even though he is pricey, his price is $1,400 less than the most expensive running back, Le’Veon Bell.
Devonta Freeman AKA The Lions daddy pic.twitter.com/oeXKRPzHbZ
— Carlton (@SlopingGiraffe) September 24, 2017
Freeman has the potential to be the #1 running back this week, as the Falcons play the Bills at home. At home the Falcons are much more explosive (34 points in their only game), and are much more likely to have a big lead.
Freeman will be used to run the game clock out, and has high touchdown potential as well. He is the top-tier running back to spend big on.
Christian McCaffery ($6,800):
McCaffery finally broke through against the Saints, reeling in nine receptions for 101 yards. However, the team lost and he only had 16 rushing yards. Despite the poor performance on the ground, nine for 101 in DraftKings is 22.1 points by itself. DraftKings rewards three points for a 100+ yard game, so McCaffery’s receiving alone provided an elite game.
Expect this to repeat against the Patriots in Foxboro on Sunday. New England is by far the better team, and if the Carolina offense struggled against the Saints defense, they will against the Patriots too. Game script dictates that the Panthers will be throwing A LOT and that benefits McCaffery greatly.
Texans running back D’Onta Foreman did well against the Patriots in week three, accruing two receptions for 65 yards, and was left wide open on a 34 yard pass. Foreman is not nearly as quick and proficient with routes as McCaffery is, so expect McCaffery to take advantage of the poor Patriots pass defense.
Wide Receiver (3)
Stefon Diggs ($7,100):
Stefon Diggs has been the overall number one receiver in season-long fantasy this year. The man has been nothing short of unstoppable. In the two home games the Vikings have played; Diggs has a combined 15 receptions, 266 yards, and four touchdowns. PPR monster.
Combine the fact he is at home with the opponent, the Lions, and you have a recipe for an explosion. In two career games against the Lions, Diggs has 19 receptions, 188 yards, and a touchdown.
Case closed. Stefon Diggs is going off on Sunday. Thank me later when you cash in big time.
Larry Fitzgerald ($6,100):
Old men can ball out too. Fitzgerald proved doubters wrong by posting 13 receptions, 149 yards, and a touchdown against the Cowboys on Monday Night Football in week three. That is 36.9 points in DraftKings scoring. Insane.
Going against the 49ers defense which just got torched by the Goff-led Rams is a good way to follow that up. Look for the Cardinals to exploit the poor 49ers secondary and continue doing what they do best; feed Larry Fitzgerald.
Typically Fitzgerald does not provide a high ceiling, but with injuries to John Brown and David Johnson, he is the only true red zone threat in Arizona. If Arizona gets in the red zone, it is going to Fitzgerald. For this reason, $6,100 for a PPR receiver with touchdown potential is a bargain.
Sterling Shepard ($5,000):
Shepard has revealed himself to be a great complement to Odell Beckham Jr.. The second year man from Oklahoma posted seven receptions for 133 yards and a touchdown in week three against the Eagles. That was the second week this season he had seven receptions. Safe floor for a third option, who also has a high ceiling, as seen in his 29.3 point game against Philadelphia.
It is a good match up going against Tampa Bay this week in New York. As seen in the aforementioned Stefon Diggs’ game against the Buccaneers, their pass defense is horrendous.
Eight receptions for 173 yards and two touchdowns like Diggs did is unrealistic , but even half of that fantasy output would be fantastic as a third receiver option. Shepard provides a hybrid of a high potential player with a high floor as well. In a format that awards a point for every reception, those are the receivers to target.
Diggs, Fitzgerald, and Shepard complement each other well in this lineup. All three are safe options who have blow-up potential.
Tight End (1)
Jason Witten ($5,000):
Despite only hauling in one reception against Arizona, Witten has 18 catches on the year. In week one he had seven, and in week two he had ten catches. In both weeks one and two, he also had a touchdown.
The Cardinals game was clearly an outlier, as Dak Prescott loves targeting Ol’ Reliable in Jason Witten. Witten has a lower ceiling than tight ends like Rob Gronkowski, but in a year where so many tight ends have been just awful, I want safety. If you look up “safety” in a dictionary, there is a photo of Jason Witten right next to the definition.
Do not be dumb. Do not chase Gronkowski’s points and blow $6,600 on him to be your tight end. Just be smart and play the man who has been catching passes since seemingly 1787, Jason Witten.
Wendell Smallwood ($4,100):
Smallwood is a gamble, but anyone at around $4,000 is a gamble. Despite his riskiness, it seems he is the safest of cheap flex plays. Against the Giants in his game as the feature back, he rushed for 71 yards on 12 attempts.
Now the starter for the Eagles since Darren Sproles went down with a broken arm and a torn ACL, Smallwood has potential for a nice 15 or so point game. He will not explode, but in a DFS game, you need safety. Smallwood will provide volume, and at a cheap price.
It is a very un-sexy play, but those need to be in your lineup to win cash.
Denver Broncos ($3,300):
Usually you do not play the defense that is playing the Raiders, but DFS is weird. So I’m going to get weird.
The Raiders were awful on Monday night. They scored only ten points against Washington and were held under 100 total yards until the last minute garbage-time drive in the fourth. Washington’s defense is nothing special outside of Josh Norman, so a road match up against the stout Denver defense spells trouble for Oakland.
Trouble for Oakland means happy times at Mile High Stadium, and happy times for your lineup.
Denver is a top defense, and isn’t being valued like one against Oakland for some reason. Take advantage of this pricing and laugh maniacally when Chris Harris Jr. runs back a Derek Carr interception for a touchdown.
Thank you for reading this second edition of Fantasy Friday, I hope this week goes better than last week’s train wreck did. Good luck out there, and win big.